Recent Bitcoin Bull Run and Past Run-Up Data Shows A Soft Bear Market Is in the Cards
It has been six months or almost 180 days since bitcoin hit an all-time high of $69K per unit on November 10, 2021, and the USD value of bitcoin is down 45% from that point. Usually after the bitcoin price tops, a bear market is followed by a drop of 80% or more in value. However, because the recent price top is similar to the April 2013 to November 2013 increase, Bitcoin’s current bearish downside may not be as great this time around.
Bitcoin will drop 80% from highs to $13,800 per unit
The bitcoin market has been bearish over the past six months after the crypto asset hit an all-time high (ATH) of $69K last year. While the prices are bland for many, it has made people wonder how long the downward cycle will last.
Using today’s bitcoin (BTC) exchange rates against the US dollar, the major crypto asset has lost 45% so far. Typically, when BTC peaks, the price drops significantly during long-term bearish cycles and after a few specific tops, BTC falls by more than 80% from highs.
For example, in April 2013, BTC reached an all-time high of $259 per unit, but then it fell to $50 per unit with a price drop of about 82.6%. From an all-time high of $1,163 per unit from November 2013 to January 2016, the value of BTC fell by 86.9%. If the USD price of Bitcoin drops 80% from its recent high of $69K six months ago, the price will drop to a low of $13,800 per unit.
soft bear market theory
However, there is a possibility that the current bear cycle could be shorter and less impressive this time around. While BTC has seen at least three drops of 80% or more, it has seen a much larger 32-51% drop. One reason bitcoin’s bottom may not have been so hard is because the crypto asset’s peak was not that big. In fact, the last bitcoin bull run was long and saw a very small percentage gain compared to the previous all-time high. Crypto Advocate and YouTuber ‘Colin Talks Crypto’ Soft bear market theory on May 1.
From the August 17, 2012 peak ($16) to the April 10, 2013 peak ($259), BTC gained 1,518.75% between that time frame. Following that cycle, between the April 10, 2013 peak and the November 2013 peak, bitcoin gained 349.03%. Then from the November 2013 peak to the December 2017 peak, BTC jumped 1,590.97%.
This time, however, it was only 250.85 per cent over December 2017’s November 2021 peak. This has been the lowest percentage gain of all the major bull runs in the lifetime of the crypto asset. Jumping higher could create a soft bitcoin bear market that is far less drastic than an 80% or more drop.
Apart from the smaller ATH, the run-up to the 2021 ATH was over 400 days. Bitcoin lasted only 200 days, or almost halving, before the bull market (2017). This means that the brunt of the current bear market may be softening in a sense, but it may last much longer than previous bear cycles.
Tags in this story $13800, 2013 bull, 2017 bull, 80% bearish, bear market, bear run, bearish, bitcoin, bitcoin (btc), bottoms, bull run, bullish, colin talk crypto, crypto market, tall bull, peak, short bear run, soft bear market theory, tops
What do you think about the prospect of a soft bear market that is less harsh than the past 80% of bitcoin experienced in the past? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comment section below.
Jamie Redmayne
image credit: Shutterstock, Pixabay, WikiCommons
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation or recommendation or endorsement of an offer to buy or sell any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the Company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.
more popular news
in case you missed it
