ADP employment report shows 455,000 new jobs, March non-farm payrolls ahead
The US economy last month added marginally more than expected for the private sector, data indicated on Wednesday, as hiring in the hospitality and leisure sector accelerated in the wake of Covid restrictions on business and travel.
Payroll processing group ADP said in its national employment report, which it compiles with Moody’s Analytics, that private sector jobs grew by 455,000 in November, just ahead of the Street consensus forecast of 450,000 overall, moderate. and was accompanied by massive gains. -sized business in the leisure and hospitality sector.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its official non-farm payrolls report on Friday, with economists looking for a headline total that represents about 490,000 new jobs and a headline unemployment rate of 3.8%.
“Job growth was broad across sectors in March, contributing to nearly 1.5 million jobs in the first quarter of 2022,” said ADP chief economist Nella Richardson. “Businesses are hiring, especially among service providers, who had the most grounds to make up for due to the early losses of the pandemic. However, a tight labor supply remains an obstacle to continued growth in consumer-facing industries.”
US equity futures were marginally stronger after the data release, with contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicating an early 120-point drop and those tied to the S&P 500, down 18 points from last night’s close. was with.
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Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield eased marginally to 2.40%, while the dollar index was trading 0.44% lower at 97.966 against a basket of its global peers.
The Federal Reserve will publish its preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, on Thursday, with analysts looking for a higher bounce in earnings, a pullback in real spending and a further bounce in overall inflationary pressures.
Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will also provide concrete clues about the pace of growth in the labor market and any pick-up in wages, which could give the Fed further fuel to its argument that the fastest would reduce consumer price inflation. Higher rates are required to do so. in forty years.
It’s even more likely now that we know that more than 11.2 million positions remained vacant in the job market last month, according to data from the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a figure that can only suggest that companies need to be paid a higher salary. To get people back into the workforce.
Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics said, “The open is now stable, close to its all-time high, and is largely higher than the peak of the last economic cycle.” “In contrast, the number of jobs in small businesses the NFIB survey found has decreased in recent months, although this is also much higher by historical standards.”
“The labor market remains tight, but is no longer tightening,” he said.
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